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Significance

Russia is contending with the West for influence in Serbia, a candidate for EU membership. For Belgrade, integration with the EU is economically advantageous but like several other European states, it wants good relations with Moscow, too.

Impacts

Germany is key to setting EU relations with Moscow.

Russia will back illiberal, populist-nationalist parties in order to disrupt and weaken perceived enemies.

It would take a massive breakdown in relations for Europe to discontinue importing hydrocarbons from Russia.

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