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Subject

The future of Irish-UK relations.

Significance

Brexit has deeply unsettled relations between Ireland and the United Kingdom, after a generation in which the two states and peoples grew closer in terms of trust, policy convergence and openness to each other. As London looks to strengthen its global influence, closer to home, historical tensions look set to resurface in some form, especially regarding mutual trust and affairs in Northern Ireland.

Impacts

MI5 will strengthen its operations in Northern Ireland in the event of a hard border.

As one of the few common-law countries in the EU after Brexit, Ireland will attract greater legal investment.

Once phase one of the Brexit talks are complete, Ireland’s minority government will be forced to call a general election.

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