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Significance

The move follows Duque's cancellation of peace talks with the National Liberation Army (ELN) on January 18, after a bomb attack on a Bogota police academy that killed 22. On February 6, Duque announced a new Defence and Security Policy (PDS) ruling out any prospect of bilateral ceasefires with non-state armed groups and launching a renewed focus on hardline security strategies.

Impacts

A return to open war will undermine hopes of an economic ‘peace dividend’ following the peace process with the FARC.

An increase in militarised security policies and forcible coca eradication will lead to more human rights abuse and extrajudicial killings.

Increased violence will breed contempt for the government among rural communities, making the removal of armed groups more difficult.

With Venezuela’s crisis looking set to worsen, Colombia’s security situation shows little prospect of improvement in the coming years.

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