EU's rivals in Western Balkans.
Despite last year’s Austrian presidency of the Council of the EU, and the current Romanian presidency’s interest in the region, the Western Balkans is still largely ignored by European capitals. This is allowing other actors, specifically Russia, Turkey and China, to gain influence. Waning belief in near-term EU expansion has reduced incentives to continue the progress made in the previous decade.
A Western military presence in the region will continue as a means of ensuring stability in the absence of reforms.
Domestic political leaders’ reliability will diminish as short-term considerations supersede long-term goals.
Public trust in the EU will continue to fall, though EU accession will remain a popular objective.
