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Significance
The move follows weeks of heightened tension over Central American migrant caravans, which saw Nielsen launch a new border security strategy with the ‘Northern Triangle’ governments of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, and Trump order an end to US aid to the region, before renewing, then retracting, threats to close the US-Mexico border.
Impacts
Seemingly soft migration policies could provoke anger with AMLO in northern Mexico, especially if caravans hinder cross-border travel.
Trump’s climbdown on the border closure undermines his threats towards Mexico generally and may embolden the Mexican government.
Increased deportations from the United States would put even more pressure on Northern Triangle governments, especially that of El Salvador.
Keywords:
Central America,
Mexico,
United States,
LA/C,
NA,
El Salvador,
Guatemala,
Honduras,
CENTRAL AMERICA/MEXICO/US,
economy,
industry,
international relations,
politics,
social,
aid,
border conflict,
foreign investment,
foreign policy,
government,
human rights,
immigration,
policy,
regional,
security,
crime,
poverty
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2019
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