Brexit and the UK economy.
The share of the UK workforce in employment is the highest since records began almost 50 years ago, supporting rising real wages; but the contrast between this and the number of firms issuing profit warnings and considering relocation is deepening. Partly explaining the disconnect between a surging job market and plunging business investment is that, just as after 2008-09, firms are avoiding decisions on large investments that would be hard to reverse, while taking advantage of a flexible job market and spending more on workers, for the moment.
There could be a Brexit ‘dividend’ if the final outcome's impact is economically better than many fear, led by a surging pound.
Globally light UK regulation limits the scope for change, but Open Europe sees politically feasible regulatory changes adding 0.7 pp to GDP.
Assessing the impact of uncertain job-market changes and potential tax cuts on revenues makes the budget outlook the trickiest to judge.
A thorough OECD study suggests that EU membership has boosted UK FDI by 28% and sees leaving the EU cutting it by 22% in the next decade.
Brexit could accelerate UK innovation -- a 2018 survey of 1,000 managers by Adecco shows that 33% may automate tasks to fill skill gaps.
