UK immigration outlook.
Under most Brexit scenarios, freedom of movement between the United Kingdom and the EU-27 will end in December 2020. This will require the United Kingdom radically to reform its immigration policy, both towards EU citizens and, to a lesser extent, non-EU citizens.
Immigration reductions will have a small negative impact on UK public finances, even considering the reduced pressure on public services.
There will be some increase in non-EU migration, especially of relatively well-paid workers.
There may be some upward pressure on wages in specific sectors, although the overall impact on real wages is likely to be small.
A change of prime minister may reduce immigration policy restrictiveness, mitigating the impact without altering the direction of travel.
