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Subject

Barred presidential candidates.

Significance

Two separate constitutional court rulings in May have barred two of Guatemala’s leading presidential candidates from standing in the June 15 elections. This leaves former First Lady Sandra Torres with a clear lead in the polls. The controversial nature of the judicial rulings will cast doubt over the legitimacy of the electoral process, as well as raising concerns about the future government’s commitment to maintaining much-needed anti-corruption investigations.

Impacts

The CICIG is now almost certain to leave Guatemala in October as Aldana was the only candidate in favour of restoring its mandate.

Social unrest is becoming increasingly likely around the elections as voters protest the barring of their preferred candidates.

The international response has been muted so far; countries may wait until after the elections to comment.

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