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Significance
Last week, a second major rebel counterattack cut the road between Suqaylabiyah and Muhradah, two strongholds of paramilitaries supportive of President Bashar al-Assad. Rebels’ ability to take the initiative six weeks into the campaign dashed loyalist hopes of a swift victory.
Impacts
Russia will escalate punitive airstrikes, but this will not dramatically alter the military balance.
Turkey will try leveraging logistical support to obtain further pragmatic moves by HTS, including reconciliation with other factions.
A respectable outcome would provide HTS with legitimacy to curtail further the activities of more hardline factions.
Another Russian-Turkish agreement would reinforce the Moscow-Tehran rivalry.
Keywords:
Syria,
ME/NAF,
Russia,
Turkey,
politics,
civil war,
government,
guerrillas,
military,
opposition,
foreign policy,
refugees,
terrorism
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2019
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