Outlook for out-migration from Eritrea.
A year after the surprise Ethiopia-Eritrea peace deal, much has changed in regional politics but there is little corresponding evidence of structural change within Eritrea. Consequently, hopes that high levels of out-migration might drop are fading, though migrants’ journeys do show a responsiveness to changing political agendas and opportunities in host countries.
Despite engagement with international actors on regional issues and human rights, Asmara will resist pressure for domestic reforms.
Policy incoherence among European donors increases insecurity for migrants and may undermine longer-term European interests in the Horn.
Initiatives that target smuggling will prove little more than palliative in a regional context riven by structural drivers of migration.
