China-Philippines relations.
On June 9, a Chinese trawler collided with a small Philippine fishing vessel in disputed waters in the South China Sea in what Philippine officials described as a “hit and run” incident. Even if the collision was accidental, the behaviour of the Chinese boat in leaving the scene has caused an outcry in the Philippines.
The incident is likely to work against Manila’s policy of seeking joint development of offshore energy resources with China.
President Rodrigo Duterte’s China-friendly policy will remain unchanged in the short term.
A joint Philippines-China investigation into the incident would find it to have been accidental (whatever the facts may be).
China will attempt to tighten control over its South China Sea maritime militia, and fishing fleet more broadly.
