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Significance
While there is moderate optimism among European, Latin American and Caribbean countries about a negotiated solution to Venezuela’s crisis, the United States remains sceptical. The US position strengthens more hawkish but domestically unpopular elements in the opposition that support a military intervention to remove President Nicolas Maduro.
Impacts
Progressing dialogue will put pressure on Guaido, whose appeasement of both pro- and anti-negotiation factions is unsustainable.
Growing concern as to the impact of US sanctions on the humanitarian situation will intensify efforts to resolve the impasse.
Amid a worsening humanitarian crisis, it will become morally and politically difficult to hold out for Maduro’s departure.
Keywords:
Venezuela,
LA/C,
Cuba,
EU,
Latin America,
Norway,
Russia,
United Nations,
United States,
industry,
international relations,
politics,
social,
election,
government,
human rights,
military,
oil,
opposition,
poverty,
refugees,
sanctions,
talks,
Fossil fuels
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2019
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