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Subject
Brexit negotiations.
Significance
A Northern Ireland-specific agreement is now the best hope for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to deliver Brexit by October 31 with a deal. While Johnson would likely accept alignment of Northern Ireland with EU rules if this meant replacing the UK-wide backstop, convincing his Northern Irish allies in the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) remains the key challenge.
Impacts
Delivering Brexit with a deal will increase the prospects for a UK-US free trade agreement.
A risk of a Northern Ireland backstop is that it will invite pressure from Scottish nationalists, who would want similar special treatment.
The EU is likely to accept an Article 50 extension request if an election or referendum is due to take place.
Keywords:
United Kingdom,
Northern Ireland,
Ireland,
EU,
EUR,
UK-EU,
economy,
industry,
international relations,
politics,
social,
border conflict,
foreign policy,
government,
party,
talks,
agriculture,
aid,
constitution,
election,
environment,
food,
foreign trade,
judicial,
labour,
legislation,
nationality,
opposition,
regional,
technology,
Food Retailing
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2019
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