EU-Africa trade talks.
The EU is negotiating three regional protocols as part of its trade and aid negotiations with African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) states to conclude a successor to the existing ACP-EU Cotonou Partnership Agreement due to expire in 2020. However, the Africa Regional Protocol, with its likely commitment to an Africa-Europe free trade area, is set to undermine the EU's ongoing efforts to curb African migration.
The new partnership will come under increasing pressure from right-wing European populists seeking to further politicise migration flows.
Any liberalisation gains for African farmers will likely prove short-lived and insufficient to offset negative effects from import flooding.
The EU may increasingly condition aid on stricter border surveillance measures and repatriation schemes from ACP states to stem migration.
