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Subject

The Lebanon-Israel maritime border dispute.

Significance

President Michel Aoun in September told David Schenker, the incoming US assistant secretary of state for the Middle East, of the importance of US mediation between Lebanon and Israel to settle their maritime border dispute. Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri had said during a visit to Washington in August he hoped the issue would be resolved this month. Lebanon has been trying to promote offshore gas exploration and recognises that the lack of settled boundaries with Israel is a major disincentive for investors as it tries to encourage bids for offshore exploration blocks.

Impacts

Protracted Israeli coalition talks will preclude any engagement on their side for some weeks.

Recent clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah will add an extra complication.

Both sides will press their claims with provocative actions in the disputed area such as deploying naval vessels or approving exploration.

The dispute's lack of resolution will not hinder most oil and gas exploration activity in either Lebanese or Israeli waters.

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