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Subject

Recent uptick in protests in Papua.

Significance

Security in restive Papua and West Papua provinces has deteriorated in the last seven weeks amid two waves of violent protests. Despite President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo’s new willingness to meet with Papuan pro-independence leaders, the government lacks a strategy for reducing tensions.

Impacts

Jakarta may be somewhat distracted from the Papua situation by student protests over anti-corruption reforms and a proposed new penal code.

Violence in Papua could harm Indonesia’s chances of gaining a seat on the UN Human Rights Council next week.

Despite the unrest, Canberra is unlikely to hesitate in ratifying an Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.

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