Under pressure to comply with Russia's demands for greater integration, Belarus is trying to preserve an independent, non-aggressive posture. This often involves apparently conflicting foreign policy statements, but the desire not to be swallowed up as a de facto Russian province seems genuine. Movement towards tax integration with Moscow may reduce President Alexander Lukashenka's room for manoeuvre.
An opinion poll shows that support for ‘union’ with Russia is falling but still above 50%, although few want state unification.
Lukashenka will tolerate opposition positions that support independence but do not challenge his commitment to it.
Belarus's rejection of military bases will not dissuade Poland from lobbying NATO for a large military presence.
