Open figure viewer
Significance
Haftar wants to seize the capital from the internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). Both sides, but especially the LNA, have increased their use of propaganda to undermine the other side. This includes claims about 'third force' threats posed by militant Islamist groups -- a subject which prompts alarm in Western capitals.
Impacts
Foreign air strikes on purported terrorist targets will not resolve fundamental problems.
Attacks on civilian targets will remain a risk.
Ambitious armed group leaders may try to capitalise on the situation, in Tripoli or Benghazi.
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2019
You do not currently have access to this content.
