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Subject
Outlook for presidential elections in Guinea-Bissau.
Significance
Controversial outgoing President Jose Mario Vaz is among twelve candidates vying for the presidency on November 24. While the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)-backed elections are set to go ahead as planned, fears linger that they will not end recurring political turmoil.
Impacts
If Pereira wins, he will likely try drafting a new constitution to give greater clarity to the current ambiguous semi-presidential system.
Ongoing political instability will exacerbate border insecurity and long-standing narco-trafficking.
A more active, internationally backed civil society will ensure added scrutiny of political parties and the government over the long term.
Keywords:
Guinea-Bissau,
AF,
West Africa,
international relations,
politics,
social,
election,
foreign policy,
government,
military,
opposition,
party,
protest,
regional,
security,
economy,
constitution,
corruption,
judicial,
reform
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2019
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