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Significance
The November 29 resignation of Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi has left a political vacuum. Demonstrations moved into a new phase in December, with militias supporting populist Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr acting as a ‘third force’ to protect the protest sites.
Impacts
Iranian-backed militias will attack US interests with missiles to demonstrate capability and deter, while aiming to avoid casualties.
Unintentional killing of US personnel by Iran-backed militias would prompt a swift, forceful US military response.
Increased civil strife is unlikely significantly to affect vital oil exports, which are well protected.
The political standoff will discourage foreign direct investment.
Keywords:
politics,
government,
human rights,
military,
opposition,
protest,
riot,
security,
international relations,
Iraq,
ME/NAF,
Iran,
United Nations,
United States
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2019
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