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Subject
The rise of Russian mercenaries.
Significance
The Wagner private military company (PMC) is operating in several African countries and in active combat in Libya and Mozambique. Together with the Russia-African summit in October, this has sparked talk of an overarching Kremlin regional strategy. In practice, Moscow's approach is still evolving and opportunistic.
Impacts
The United States and France will try to shore up their positions in Africa for fear that Russia plans to supplant them.
Concord's offer of 'regime-support services' will be part of efforts to portray Russia as a friend of African governments under pressure.
Wagner's recent setbacks will affect its profits and credibility, but not the rise of other Russian PMCs.
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2019
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