Unrest in 2020.
More than 18 months after protests began in Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega remains in office and appears to have consolidated his position. Despite ongoing international pressure, particularly from the Organization of American States (OAS), he appears unwilling to make concessions to opposition protesters. While his repressive policies have helped perpetuate his regime, they provide no outlet for dissent, raising the risk that protests will explode again in 2020.
Extended Temporary Protected Status will offer some economic relief, keeping remittances flowing from US-based Nicaraguans in 2020.
Mounting pressure could force the ruling Sandinistas to look for a successor to 74-year-old Ortega.
Ongoing repression will continue to encourage outward migration, primarily to neighbouring Costa Rica.
