US sanctions have already impeded payment in hard currency, and Washington’s waivers allowing continuation of the trade may end in February. Exports to Turkey and Iraq have helped Iran’s gas sector cope with sanctions better than the oil industry. Production has boomed with the completion of long-delayed projects, replacing oil in the power sector, reducing winter shortages and boosting supplies to industry.
Competition with increased output from Qatar will force Iran to keep up expansion in the shared North Field/South Pars.
Resolution of the Saudi-Kuwaiti Neutral Zone spat may push Iran to prioritise development in the disputed offshore Dorra/Arash field.
In the still-unlikely case of wider military confrontation with Washington, gas facilities in Iran and nearby countries would be targets.
US negotiations are unlikely until after November, and any sanctions relaxation following a deal would likely target oil by priority.
