Troops supporting President Bashar al-Assad launched their latest offensive in Syria’s last large rebel-held region in November 2019. Russian air support has enabled them to make significant advances, spurring confrontation with Turkey, which has reinforced military observation posts in the area and demanded that Damascus withdraw by the end of February.
Unless it directly confronts Damascus, Ankara may be left with a narrow, resource-constrained border buffer zone full of displaced people.
Having largely achieved its goals in Kurdish areas, Turkey is now less likely to use Idlib as a lower-priority bargaining chip.
The narrowing of US-Turkish differences over the Syrian Kurds since October could allow Ankara to seek Washington’s backing.
Military intervention in Libya may provide Turkey with renewed -- albeit limited -- leverage in negotiations with Russia.
