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Subject

The EU’s revised enlargement process.

Significance

The EU’s image and credibility has reached an all-time low in the Balkans, after French President Emmanuel Macron blocked North Macedonia and Albania receiving a date for starting accession talks. This could undermine stability in Europe, since the EU's withdrawal from the Balkans is encouraging local nationalists and opening space for conflicting US, Russian, Chinese and Turkish influence.

Impacts

North Macedonian Social Democrat leader Zoran Zaev will probably pay for the EU's vacillation at the ballot box on April 12.

If an EU perspective is denied Albania and Kosovo, the two countries could turn instead to forming a ‘Greater Albania’.

The EU will be hamstrung by internal problems, including Polish and Hungarian democratic backsliding and haggling on the 2021-27 budget.

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