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Subject

Attempts to repair fraying EU-Turkey migrant deal.

Significance

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s end-February decision to encourage migrants to try to enter Europe via the Greek-Turkish land border was the immediate result of developments in Syria. Thousands came to the Turkish side of the border; Greece’s instant reaction was to step up security in eastern Thrace and bring the EU onto Greece’s side. This has prompted the question whether the 2016 EU-Turkey Statement is dead.

Impacts

The increasing militarisation of the Greek-Turkish border and worsening conditions on Aegean islands will raise humanitarian concerns.

Washington will see an opportunity to put pressure on Turkey to incline more to the West in return for security and financial support.

The decision the EU takes on financial support for Turkey will be difficult, given member states’ differing views.

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