Reduced global demand due to COVID-19 and the collapse of OPEC+ output caps have driven prices under 40 dollars per barrel. That does not benefit Belarus, as its petroleum product exports have also fallen in value. After months of arguments about oil prices, President Alexander Lukashenka says he has secured a pledge of financial relief from Russia, but Moscow has yet to confirm.
Lukashenka's re-election would normally be routine, but this year it takes place in unfavourable external circumstances.
If protests start to grow, the government can always impose restrictions attributed to COVID-19.
US-EU attempts at closer engagement will be thwarted by Belarus's ultimate reliance on Russia.
Belarus will replace Russian with Chinese loans but neither is a substitute for structural reforms.
