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Subject

Tensions between Belgium's regions.

Significance

Belgium’s new minority government led by Prime Minister Sophie Wilmes was sworn in on March 17 for an initial period of 3-6 months to combat COVID-19. Beyond this immediate challenge, the main issue will be Belgium’s future as a federation, as significant disagreements between Flemish and Walloon parties could widen. These may also compromise future negotiations for a majority coalition government once the health crisis starts to subside.

Impacts

Belgium will strongly advocate extending the Brexit transition period given the economic implications of COVID-19.

The budgetary impact of the crisis makes it less likely that Belgium will meet NATO's 2% of GDP rule for defence spending in coming years.

The current economic downturn will likely push Belgium’s sovereign debt beyond 100% of GDP.

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