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Significance
This follows a long vacuum after popular protests forced the resignation of Adel Abdel-Mahdi in November, and two earlier nominees failed to be confirmed. Kadhimi’s appointment was warmly welcomed by Washington -- and not opposed by Tehran.
Impacts
Baghdad and Washington will likely agree guaranteed protection of US forces in return for an end to US strikes on Iran-backed militias.
Tehran and others may pressure Shia militia Kataib Hezbollah to tone down its radical opposition to Kadhimi.
The United States could repeatedly renew sanctions waivers, allowing Baghdad to buy Iranian gas and electricity.
Kadhimi and the Kurdistan Regional Government are ready to agree an oil-for-salaries deal, despite rising economic pressure.
Keywords:
Iraq,
ME/NAF,
Iran,
OPEC,
United States,
economy,
industry,
international relations,
politics,
social,
ethnic,
fiscal,
government,
military,
oil,
opposition,
protest,
reform,
religion,
security,
Fossil fuels
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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