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Significance
The lockdown has successfully slowed the virus’s spread, but is taking a severe economic and social toll. While it has been gradually lifted in parts of the country, the continuing strict quarantine in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area (AMBA) will drive the sharpest recession since 2002.
Impacts
Government aid will be insufficient to prevent a wave of bankruptcies and a rise in unemployment.
The sharp drop in economic activity will reduce the government’s tax revenues and ability to provide emergency relief.
If the government reaches a debt restructuring agreement, international investments could play a key role in recovery.
Keywords:
Argentina,
LA/C,
economy,
industry,
politics,
social,
corporate,
employment,
fiscal,
government,
growth,
health,
monetary,
policy,
poverty,
productivity,
construction,
fishing,
leisure,
manufacturing,
retail,
services
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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