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Significance

Recent events suggest this is about to change.

Impacts

Washington will press Japan to buy other US equipment after Tokyo cancelled the Aegis Ashore missile defence system.

India’s and Australia’s confrontations with China will make them more willing security partners for Japan.

A Democrat victory in the US presidential election would likely stabilise the alliance, but not remove US pressure on Japan vis-a-vis China.

Japan will seek security cooperation with European partners, which will be more receptive due to their growing misgivings about China.

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