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Significance
Its objective is not to prevent a US troop withdrawal but to ensure this results in worse terms and maximum embarrassment for Washington, and in greater Iranian influence. To that end, it is re-engaging with old 'warlord parties' and sponsoring a Taliban splinter group, Hezb-e Welayat-e Islami.
Impacts
Detractors of the peace deal will point to continuing insurgencies involving Islamic State and Hezb-e Welayat-e Islami.
The economic dividends of a political settlement will not come if violence remains at a significant level.
Iran-Russia relations may suffer as their Afghan strategies diverge.
Keywords:
Afghanistan,
Iran,
AP,
United States,
AFGHANISTAN/IRAN,
international relations,
politics,
civil war,
government,
guerrillas,
talks,
ethnic,
religion
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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