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Significance
The ban expires on October 18, under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 nuclear deal, from which Washington withdrew in 2018. If its extension efforts fail, the United States has outlined a fallback plan to reimpose all UN sanctions on Tehran.
Impacts
To forestall sanctions snapback, European powers may try to limit arms sales to Iran temporarily through talks outside the Security Council.
An escalation of Israeli (or US) attacks on Iranian interests could force Tehran to change its policy of patience.
An increasingly hardline mood in Iran could drive future clashes with the IAEA.
Keywords:
Iran,
ME/NAF,
United States,
WE,
China,
Europe,
France,
Niger,
Russia,
United Nations,
economy,
industry,
international relations,
arms,
arms control,
foreign policy,
military,
nuclear energy,
nuclear weapons,
sanctions,
security,
election,
Uranium
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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