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Significance
While the Mozambican authorities, bolstered by a South African-based private military company (PMC), appear to have lessened the scale of insurgent attacks in recent months, insecurity remains rife. Meanwhile, civilian authority is increasingly brittle as locals flee various districts fearing renewed insurgent attacks.
Impacts
International concern will grow over the reported intersection between the insurgency and criminal trafficking networks.
The worsening COVID-19 crisis, including related job losses, will aggravate the humanitarian situation in Cabo Delgado.
Ongoing insecurity from attacks in central provinces by the splinter ‘RENAMO Military Junta’ will stretch the security forces’ resources.
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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