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Significance
Previously, there was accommodation and even cooperation between them. Global rivalries between al-Qaida and the Islamic State do not explain the shifts in the Sahara-Sahel. Rather, it concerns local political calculations and territorial control.
Impacts
The JNIM-ISGS clashes contribute to surging displacements of civilians in the Sahel, especially in northern Burkina Faso and central Mali.
If ISGS loses, it will thwart the ambition to connect ISGS to Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in the Lake Chad basin.
France will likely redouble its efforts to kill ISGS leader Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahrawi.
Keywords:
Mali,
Burkina Faso,
Niger,
AF,
WEST AFRICA,
social,
civil war,
ethnic,
security,
terrorism
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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