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Significance
Opposition victories, especially those that remove long-standing authoritarian regimes, have been associated with democratic strengthening, with transfers of power shown to boost public support for democracy and demonstrate that the political elite is willing to share power, bolstering democratic norms and values.
Impacts
Evidence of further opposition victories will encourage authoritarian leaders to deploy more intense pre-election repression.
Ruling parties at risk of losing polls may try to exploit the pandemic to postpone elections, especially in more authoritarian settings.
While transfers of power have often strengthened democracy, they largely disrupt rather than bring an end to political corruption networks.
Keywords:
Africa,
AF,
Tanzania,
Uganda,
Zambia,
Benin,
Cape Verde,
Comoros,
Gambia,
Ghana,
Ivory Coast,
Malawi,
Mali,
Niger,
Nigeria,
Sao Tome,
Senegal,
Seychelles,
Sierra Leone,
international relations,
politics,
social,
corruption,
election,
government,
human rights,
opposition,
party,
protest,
reform,
regional,
security,
military,
police
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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