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Significance
The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party is all but guaranteed to secure victory on the mainland, most likely increasing its majority in the national assembly on the way. However, the vote in the semi-autonomous Zanzibar region -- comprising Unguja and Pemba islands -- is likely to be close and potentially highly fraught.
Impacts
The electoral commission’s disqualification of multiple opposition candidates could have a major impact if not overturned on appeal.
Should irregularities occur, there could be a scenario where both sides publicly claim victory.
The international community may respond to significant irregularities by freezing some aid but is unlikely to go much further.
Keywords:
Tanzania,
AF,
politics,
social,
corruption,
decentralisation,
election,
government,
opposition,
protest,
security
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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