Open figure viewer
Significance
The intensity of the clashes, now in their third day, heightens the risk of full-scale war with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan is committed to defending Armenian-controlled Karabakh against Azerbaijan. The emergency is another setback for a government whose reformist aims have already been complicated by tussles with the judiciary and mismanagement of COVID-19.
Impacts
Turkey's increased rhetoric in support of Azerbaijan will make Moscow and Yerevan fear possible intervention.
Yerevan will maintain positive ties with Tehran in the face of US objections and Azerbaijani concerns.
Armenia's change of government in 2018 is too different to offer a precedent for Belarus.
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
You do not currently have access to this content.
