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Significance

Security agencies are concerned that growing radicalisation could subsequently result in an increased incidence of extremist violence and challenges to the authorities in the health sphere and elsewhere.

Impacts

COVID-19 has temporarily reduced opportunities for attacks, but far-right conspiracy theories are increasing the risk of offline violence.

Conspiracy theories will move to less regulated platforms or reinvent themselves, making them more difficult to detect.

Further lockdowns will increase the risk of social unrest in European cities.

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