This is the latest instance of development in Australia’s push to establish ‘minilaterals’ with other Indo-Pacific ‘middle powers’ that share strategic concerns over China’s growing assertiveness in Asia-Pacific, and over US staying power.
Emergence of new trilateral groupings could strain ASEAN centrality, and will change dynamics at ASEAN and ASEAN-plus meetings.
The rollout of the regional supply resilience initiative will test ASEAN states’ support for trilaterals’ regional ambitions.
China’s regional assertiveness will drive the creation of new trilaterals.
It will be harder for ASEAN states to keep China onside economically if, geopolitically, they face choosing sides.
Any reversion to more mainstream US foreign policy in Asia could reduce the impetus for nascent trilaterals.
