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Significance
Georgia's opposition refuses to accept the October 31 election result. While the government will use the visit as evidence of solid US support, its critics will scrutinise Pompeo's remarks for any hint of criticism. Worsening health and economic crises are vulnerabilities for the Georgian Dream party as it fends off opposition claims that it stole the election.
Impacts
Political polarisation will grow, hardening support for both Georgian Dream and its opponents.
A bout of political instability would limit foreign direct investment and dilute Western support.
Labour emigration will accelerate as conditions deteriorate.
Keywords:
Georgia,
RUCIS,
Caucasus,
CIS,
economy,
international relations,
politics,
social,
election,
emergency,
foreign policy,
government,
growth,
health,
opposition,
party,
exchange rate
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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