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Significance
The self-declared Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) withdrew from the 1991 ceasefire after Morocco carried out military operations in the buffer zone in Western Sahara. Moroccan authorities said they launched the operations following “provocations” and “banditry” by the Polisario Front, which blocked a border crossing.
Impacts
There is further potential for escalation; protests in Laayoune in 2019 elicited a harsh Moroccan crackdown.
The current round of conflict is moving Morocco even closer to the Gulf states, particularly the United Arab Emirates, and to Jordan.
Morocco may ultimately seek to obtain international acceptance of its claim to the Western Sahara as the price of its recognition of Israel.
Keywords:
Morocco,
Western Sahara,
ME/NAF,
Africa,
Algeria,
MOROCCO/WESTERN SAHARA,
politics,
border conflict,
foreign policy,
civil war,
military
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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