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Significance

This follows the finalisation in October of a new electoral law introducing a higher degree of proportional representation (PR), and fraught parliamentary agreement on constituencies. Electioneering is already beginning, focused in part on mounting economic pressures. The approach of elections will see a build-up of social, economic and political tensions.

Impacts

Iraq is squeezing in its election 12 days before Iran's presidential ballot, likely to strengthen conservatives in Tehran.

Austerity and poor services mean more protests are likely, but the Sadrists and other blocs will limit their scope.

International pressure and post-poll coalition calculations will motivate Baghdad to keep transferring funds to the Kurdistan region.

Islamic State activity will be constrained by a small US-led coalition presence providing intelligence and air support to Iraqi forces.

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