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Significance
Fidesz faces an election in spring 2022. The spectre of a weaker position in the EU and increased EU scrutiny on Hungary’s rule of law record could deal the party further blows. The opposition, set to hold primaries and stand as a bloc, is getting stronger.
Impacts
Political instability ahead of elections may produce only delayed effects on the exchange rate and government bond yields.
An increasingly cornered Fidesz will be more unpredictable on the European stage, with bluffs and blackmail becoming common.
Hungary’s and Poland’s budget veto could threaten the stability of the entire EU.
Keywords:
Hungary,
EUR,
EU,
Poland,
economy,
international relations,
politics,
social,
election,
fiscal,
health,
opposition,
party,
constitution,
debt,
emergency,
employment,
family,
foreign policy,
government,
growth,
integration,
judicial,
legislation
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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