Earlier in his career, US President-elect Joe Biden engaged deeply with post-2003 Iraq, and in the past advocated federalism on a sectarian basis. Although the concept was roundly rejected, more Sunnis are now asking whether regional autonomy might solve the deep problems they face amid a stark economic and political crisis and heavy pressure from Shia-led militias following the conflict with Islamic State (IS).
Personal rivalries and old animosities will prevent Sunni leaders from agreeing a unified direction in the short to medium term.
As displacement camps are closed, the problem of blocked return, reintegration and reconstruction in Sunni areas will become more acute.
Whether Shia-led militias maintain their destabilising presence will depend on power balances within Baghdad, Erbil and Tehran.
