Transport and hospitality have been the hardest-hit sectors, posting plunges of more than 15 percentage points in July-September against the same period in 2019. Household consumption has suffered a less pronounced drop, while information and communications continue to register growth on the back of a rise in remote working.
Costa Rica’s demographic bonus is coming to an end and the pension system will run operational deficits in ten years.
Recession will probably trigger additional increases in non-performing loans, particularly in the most affected sectors.
Recovering demand and oil prices will put upward pressure on inflation in 2021.
Social unrest will continue to spiral in 2021, further weakening the Alvarado administration.
A dramatic rise in COVID-19 infections, perhaps due to new strains, could bring a new, prolonged period of restrictions.
