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Significance
Oil and gas major Total has suspended work on its nearby liquefied natural gas (LNG) site, while a humanitarian crisis has worsened. Pressure for an external military intervention has increased dramatically, notably from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), but Mozambique’s ruling FRELIMO remains reluctant.
Impacts
A delay to planned LNG projects, coupled with ongoing insecurity, mean economic growth will remain subdued through the medium term.
Delays to FRELIMO’s succession process to replace President Filipe Nyusi will become an increasingly explosive political issue.
An outside military intervention would force FRELIMO to re-align its regional and international strategic alliances in the short term.
Keywords:
Mozambique,
AF,
Southern Africa,
AU,
Zimbabwe,
IMF-World Bank,
Portugal,
economy,
industry,
international relations,
politics,
social,
foreign investment,
foreign policy,
government,
human rights,
military,
opposition,
party,
police,
protest,
regional,
security,
talks,
crime,
defence,
energy,
gas,
infrastructure,
terrorism,
aid,
civil war,
family,
poverty,
welfare,
Fossil fuels
© Oxford Analytica 2021. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2021
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