Open figure viewer
Significance
At present, Republicans need to gain only five seats to take control of the House of Representatives and just one to control the Senate. Awareness that the party holding the White House usually loses seats in midterm elections is driving tactics among both Democrats and Republicans.
Impacts
Republicans are likely to rely on law and order issues that have proved politically successful for them in the past.
Republicans will link Democratic 'softness' on illegal immigrants to rising crime and Biden’s approach to Mexican border security.
Securing a Republican Congress may well lead Donald Trump to commit to running for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination.
© Oxford Analytica 2021. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2021
You do not currently have access to this content.
