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Significance
This comes amid a growing divergence between the two countries on oil policy, economic diversification and the conduct of regional affairs, including in Yemen. It forms a strong contrast to the close bilateral coordination seen in 2015-18.
Impacts
Rising competition will be primarily economic rather than (geo)political, unlike the rift with Qatar in 2017.
Discrepancies between the timing of the two crown princes’ accessions in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi may affect ties.
Internal UAE tensions could increase if Dubai feels Abu Dhabi is not doing enough to protect its commercial interests.
Political leaders in Abu Dhabi may seek benefits through public distancing from reputation-hit Riyadh in Washington’s eyes.
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2021
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