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Significance
The government claims opposition factions linked to Guaido are behind the upsurge of ‘GEDO’ violence (Grupo Estructurado de Delincuencia Organizada, or Structured Organised Crime Group). Efforts by security forces to ‘stabilise’ GEDO-dominated communities may portend an upsurge in state violence.
Impacts
The Haitian president’s killing has strengthened the government narrative of externally orchestrated mercenary warfare.
Concerns about state decomposition in Venezuela will add urgency to international efforts at successful dialogue.
An already weakened Guaido is on the back foot following Guevara’s arrest and lacks the authority to enforce any negotiated outcomes.
Keywords:
Venezuela,
LA/C,
economy,
international relations,
politics,
social,
crime,
government,
military,
opposition,
police,
policy,
security,
talks
© Oxford Analytica 2021. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2021
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